Average number of points needed to avoid the drop

S

silverlion

Well-known member
Staff member
Over the past ten years the worst case scenario was in 2016 when you needed 53. The average number needed was 44. If you split the difference down the middle you need 49. It’s a bit of a gamble I know but if we needed 49 and we already have 43 where would we get 6 more points. My thoughts are,

This Friday WBA. 0
Monday Rovrum. 3
Sat. 6th. Hudds 1
Tues. 9th Leicester 0
Sat 13th Cardiff. 3
Sat 20th Sunderland 1
Sat 27th Plymouth. 3
Sat 4th. Swansea. 1

That would give us 12 points from our last 8 games and give us 55 points.
What are your thoughts?
 
silverlion said:
Over the past ten years the worst case scenario was in 2016 when you needed 53. The average number needed was 44. If you split the difference down the middle you need 49. It’s a bit of a gamble I know but if we needed 49 and we already have 43 where would we get 6 more points. My thoughts are,

This Friday WBA. 0
Monday Rovrum. 3
Sat. 6th. Hudds 1
Tues. 9th Leicester 0
Sat 13th Cardiff. 3
Sat 20th Sunderland 1
Sat 27th Plymouth. 3
Sat 4th. Swansea. 1

That would give us 12 points from our last 8 games and give us 55 points.
What are your thoughts?
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We have to trust in Harris motivating the group. Problems remain the same both home and away: Where will those 3 point goals coming from? Time for Obafemi, Esse, Longman and maybe Mayor and Norton Cuffey to step up and prove their worth in front of goal. Hopefully they can, starting with WBA who are nothing special at the back, especially when under pressure.
 
When Leeds were 1-0 up and we were slowly getting better their manager was worried and the relief he let out when they scored their second was clear to see, Harris has made us a very hard team to beat and i cannot see many changes to a team that will be fully rested by Friday, all we have to do is start scoring from open play and not rely on set pieces to win games, once we do we will be safe long before the last day of the season.
 
I'd take the games as 2 batches of 3 and a batch of 2. Happy to take 5 minimum first 3,
Next 3 I'd be happy with 2. Last 2 if be happy with 2. 9pts from last 8 games. Probably be fine.
 
The WBA game will be the same as the last games ,,hope to Nick a goal and then all hands to the pump defending , that's our quality with the squad we have to choose from at present like to think that we can attack & put teams under pressure but with only one forward that's not going to happen , it's going to be a rocky ride till the season ends lets hope we can come out on top
 
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Budgies' Boy said:
Where will those 3 point goals coming from?
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Same place they came from V Southampton, Blackburn, Watford and Birmingham? Ten points from a possible fifteen is a decent return. More so for a team down near the bottom.


Budgies' Boy said:
Hopefully they can, starting with WBA who are nothing special at the back, especially when under pressure.
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One defeat in ten and score plenty. They're fifth in the table for a reason.
 
we've had a good recent record home and away with WBA but anyone who thinks this will be easy is blind. Any points from this game will be a bonus and hopefully 3 at Rotherham will maintain that 4-6pt lead from the bottom 3 with 6 games to go
 
Peckham Lion said:
Same place they came from V Southampton, Blackburn, Watford and Birmingham? Ten points from a possible fifteen is a decent return. More so for a team down near the bottom.



One defeat in ten and score plenty. They're fifth in the table for a reason.
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Ten points out of fifteen is an excellent performance without doubt. My points are really twofold..to expect the same level of results with even fewer recognised Goalscorers will require the other squad members, those I mentioned, to Score the goals. If I'm stating the bleeding obvious, I'm guilty as charged. As to WBA, they are on a good run, have a good manager and apparently endless supplies of money. But as you rightly indicated, similar Clubs to
 
These type of threads make me extremely nervous 😬

Typical Millwall performances in similar circumstances (ie when we play “weaker teams” and expect them to roll over):

Rotherham 1 Lions 0
Huddersfield 1 Lions 0

Then we sweat 😰 and pray 🙏 through to the end of the season!
 
Budgies' Boy said:
Ten points out of fifteen is an excellent performance without doubt. My points are really twofold..to expect the same level of results with even fewer recognised Goalscorers will require the other squad members, those I mentioned, to Score the goals. If I'm stating the bleeding obvious, I'm guilty as charged. As to WBA, they are on a good run, have a good manager and apparently endless supplies of money. But as you rightly indicated, similar Clubs to
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OK
 
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