StatWanker Says

P

Poplar Lion

Well-known member
It was suggested we have a stats thread. Now I can bore you with more drivel than I do during a game. Just for fun and discussion.

So for the first one, it's fairly well accepted that 74 points will usually get you play off spot.
Averages just over 1.6 points per game across a whole season.
Promotion form is accepted to be usually 2 points per game (yes, I know there are exceptional seasons but..)

So, assuming a teams hits "promotion form" for the rest of the season what is the minimum points they need to have now to be in the hunt and what do they need next game to stay in.
Ex. Derby have 20 games left @ 2PPG is 40pts plus the 35 they have is 75. So in effect, as long as they get 1 point in their next game and then carry on at 2 PPG games after that, they could still make it.
It is very unlikely that any team down the table will suddenly hit over 2 PPG for all 20 remaining games. It means that those who are chasing have very little margin for error and as the games left decreases, the margins become even more profound.

The top 12 are all still in.
Derby need at least a point their next game.
Birmingham & Sheffield United need all 3.
Southampton and the bottom 8 are now all gone.

With chart but not a pie chart*

Screenshot 2026-01-05 225312.jpg
 
One stat I do know is that in most games we play (but certainly not all) the other team ends up having a better completed pass rate than us. In other words most opposition teams pass the ball more accurately than us and we give the ball away more often than most teams do. Although that comes as no surprise to most of us it's still something we need to improve on if we are actually going to be promotion contenders either this season or next
 
A stand out stat is of the current top eight of which we are one, we have to play away to them all, so at least three wins and a couple of draws would put us in a brilliant position come the end of the season.
 
Poplar Lion said:
It was suggested we have a stats thread. Now I can bore you with more drivel than I do during a game. Just for fun and discussion.

So for the first one, it's fairly well accepted that 74 points will usually get you play off spot.
Averages just over 1.6 points per game across a whole season.
Promotion form is accepted to be usually 2 points per game (yes, I know there are exceptional seasons but..)

So, assuming a teams hits "promotion form" for the rest of the season what is the minimum points they need to have now to be in the hunt and what do they need next game to stay in.
Ex. Derby have 20 games left @ 2PPG is 40pts plus the 35 they have is 75. So in effect, as long as they get 1 point in their next game and then carry on at 2 PPG games after that, they could still make it.
It is very unlikely that any team down the table will suddenly hit over 2 PPG for all 20 remaining games. It means that those who are chasing have very little margin for error and as the games left decreases, the margins become even more profound.

The top 12 are all still in.
Derby need at least a point their next game.
Birmingham & Sheffield United need all 3.
Southampton and the bottom 8 are now all gone.

With chart but not a pie chart*

View attachment 29897
Click to expand...
So are you saying Charlton aren’t going to make the champions league this year?

(Great statwankery mate. Very interesting 👍)
 
Poplar Lion said:
It was suggested we have a stats thread. Now I can bore you with more drivel than I do during a game. Just for fun and discussion.

So for the first one, it's fairly well accepted that 74 points will usually get you play off spot.
Averages just over 1.6 points per game across a whole season.
Promotion form is accepted to be usually 2 points per game (yes, I know there are exceptional seasons but..)

So, assuming a teams hits "promotion form" for the rest of the season what is the minimum points they need to have now to be in the hunt and what do they need next game to stay in.
Ex. Derby have 20 games left @ 2PPG is 40pts plus the 35 they have is 75. So in effect, as long as they get 1 point in their next game and then carry on at 2 PPG games after that, they could still make it.
It is very unlikely that any team down the table will suddenly hit over 2 PPG for all 20 remaining games. It means that those who are chasing have very little margin for error and as the games left decreases, the margins become even more profound.

The top 12 are all still in.
Derby need at least a point their next game.
Birmingham & Sheffield United need all 3.
Southampton and the bottom 8 are now all gone.

With chart but not a pie chart*

View attachment 29897
Click to expand...
Literally the ony thing that i can summise from that is that Sheff Wednesday are fucked!?
 
but once again near the top of the Cleansheet league so far his season....always been in the top third since our return to the Championship

1767704360013.png
 
onlyagame said:
One stat I do know is that in most games we play (but certainly not all) the other team ends up having a better completed pass rate than us. In other words most opposition teams pass the ball more accurately than us and we give the ball away more often than most teams do. Although that comes as no surprise to most of us it's still something we need to improve on if we are actually going to be promotion contenders either this season or next
Click to expand...
Something we don't need stats to tell us, not only has our passing been very poor in a few games but when watching highlights, we don't often create chances from swift intricate passing, not that I'd want to see it all the time but an area that needs improving if we are to consider ourselves top 2 contenders.
 
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